1Min
South Africa
Nov 29, 2025
The Jagersfontein dam report reveals that early warnings of instability along the southern wall were visible as far back as 2019. Investigators found repeated slope failures, poor engineering designs and a weak foundation, concluding these long-ignored dangers led to the deadly 2022 collapse
According to the newly released technical investigation report into the Jagersfontein tailings dam collapse, the owner of the facility, Jagersfontein Development (Pty) Ltd, “may have been aware of the instability of the storage facility along the southern wall of the dam tailings from as far back as 2019”. The report was made public on Friday by Water and Sanitation Deputy Ministers David Mahlobo and Sello Seitlholo during a visit to the Jagersfontein community.
The report outlines the events and structural weaknesses that preceded the dam’s failure on 11 September 2022, an incident that killed two people, left one person still missing and presumed dead.
The incident also destroyed homes and infrastructure, and caused widespread environmental damage.
The Jagersfontein tailings facility consisted of two compartments separated by an embankment wall. When the southern wall breached, approximately 5.9 million cubic metres of fine tailings surged downstream, damaging power lines, wastewater systems and private property.
Following the disaster, the Department of Water and Sanitation appointed specialists from the University of Pretoria and the University of the Witwatersrand to conduct an independent technical investigation.
Their findings show that early signs of instability were visible years before the collapse.
Investigators reported that “a series of slope failures appear to have occurred in February and March of 2019” along the southern wall, shortly after heavy rainfall. Satellite images, according to the report, showed continued movement of the wall over the following years, with parts of the access road being displaced at an average rate of 79 mm per day between 2019 and 2021.
The report also found that the facility was raised using conceptual, rather than detailed, engineering designs, and that construction took place without supervision by a registered engineering professional. Investigators noted that part of the southern wall had been built over a pre-existing tailings dump of “low strength”, creating a weak foundation beneath the structure. The panel concluded that this foundation weakness “largely resulted in the failure of the TSF where the breach occurred”.
Other design recommendations were not implemented, including a drainage system and a multi-point delivery system to support pool management. As a result, the water pool sat directly against the dam walls without a stabilising beach of dry material, limiting the strength of the foundation and contributing to the conditions that led to the collapse.
The report details how visible movement along the southern wall continued for more than three years. By July 2022, shortly before the collapse, the wall and adjacent ground had shifted approximately 87 metres southwards. Investigators believe that construction activities undertaken by the operator in response to the movement did not resolve the instability and may have worsened conditions due to the saturated, low-strength material beneath the wall.
Mahlobo told residents he was concerned about ongoing safety issues at the site.
“I would have liked for the dam to close down but, seeing that it is not yet fully compliant with directives issued, however government also have to consider the livelihood of residents who reside in the area as the mine provides job opportunities to some of the residents. It is a fine balancing act saving jobs and saving lives," he said.
The report concludes that the most likely sequence of events involved long-term movement along a weak interface under the dam wall, gradual loss of stability, and an upstream slope failure on the morning of 11 September 2022, which triggered the breach. The resulting failure led to the release of an estimated 5.1 million cubic metres of tailings and water into the Proses Spruit.
A criminal investigation into the collapse, led by environmental inspectors from the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment and the Department of Water and Sanitation, has been completed. The National Prosecuting Authority in Bloemfontein has enrolled the matter and will proceed with prosecution.
