UNISA’s election predictions point to a new era of coalition politics in South Africa

The University of South Africa (UNISA)’s political analysis ahead of the 2024 national and provincial elections highlighted a significant shift in South Africa’s political landscape, with the eventual results ushering in a new era of coalition politics.

UNISA Professor Boitumelo Senokoane described the 2024 elections as the coalition election, saying South Africa had entered a new political era in which coalition governments would increasingly become the order of the day.

“This was the coalition election. South Africa has entered a new political era where coalitions will become the order of the day. The days of one political party securing overwhelming majorities are increasingly behind us,” said Senokoane.

He said the changing political landscape was not unique to South Africa, but reflected developments in democracies across the world, where electoral support was increasingly being distributed among several political parties.

“We have seen global trends indicating that voters are increasingly distributing their support among different political parties. This means that no single party can take electoral support for granted. Political parties must recognise that the electorate is changing,” he said.

Senokoane’s assessment gained significance following the 29 May 2024 election results, which saw the African National Congress (ANC) secure 40.18% of the national vote, a substantial decline from the 57.5% it received in the 2019 elections.

The Democratic Alliance (DA) obtained 21.81%, while the newly established uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party secured 14.58%. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) received 9.52%.

For the first time since 1994, the ANC could no longer govern nationally without support from other political parties. It secured 159 seats in the 400-member National Assembly, falling short of the 201 seats required for an outright majority.

The DA won 87 seats, the MK Party 58 and the EFF 39.

Looking ahead, Senokoane identified the ANC, MK Party and DA as three major political forces that would continue to shape South Africa’s electoral and political landscape.

He argued that the emergence of the MK Party had changed the dynamics of political competition, particularly by introducing another significant player into the country’s political environment.

“The ANC, MK Party and DA will remain important forces in South African politics. Their influence will continue to shape political competition, parliamentary representation and the formation of coalitions. The political landscape has changed, and parties will have to understand this new reality,” he said.

He added that the changing balance of political power meant that no party should assume it could govern independently without considering the strength and influence of other political formations.

The election outcome resulted in negotiations between political parties and the eventual establishment of the Government of National Unity (GNU), bringing together parties with different political ideologies and policy positions.

Senokoane said coalition politics required a fundamental change in how political parties approached governance.

“Coalition politics requires a different approach to governance. Parties must learn to negotiate, compromise and find common ground. You cannot approach coalition government as though you have an outright majority and can make decisions without considering your partners,” he said.

He said coalitions were not simply about sharing positions in government, but required political parties to develop common priorities and maintain working relationships despite their differences.

“Coalitions are not simply about sharing positions in government. They are about building consensus, agreeing on priorities and ensuring that government continues to function. Political differences will always exist, but parties must find ways to work together,” Senokoane said.

The formation of the GNU in June 2024 represented a significant development in South Africa’s democratic history. President Cyril Ramaphosa was re-elected by the National Assembly, while participating parties negotiated an arrangement to govern together.

The GNU was established around a Statement of Intent outlining shared priorities, including inclusive economic growth, job creation, poverty reduction, tackling corruption and improving service delivery.

However, coalition governance also introduced challenges around policy disagreements, political accountability and maintaining stability among parties with different constituencies.

UNISA has contributed to electoral research and democratic discussions through its academics and political experts. In June 2023, Professor Kealeboga Maphunye and Advocate Sipho Mantula participated in engagements with the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Electoral Advisory Council and Secretariat, examining lessons from the 2019 elections and expectations ahead of the 2024 polls.

Senokoane said the 2024 elections should be understood as the beginning of a new chapter in South Africa’s democracy, where political cooperation and negotiations would play an increasingly important role.

“The challenge is for political parties to recognise that governing in a coalition requires a different political culture. It is about putting the country first, respecting political differences and finding solutions that serve the broader population,” he said.