G20 SA Summit hit by major absences as Xi, Trump and Milei pull out

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s G20 Leader’s Summit next week has suffered yet another blow with reports revealing Chinese President Xi Jinping will not be joining the event.

Before since then, the highly-anticipated gathering was dealt a further blow when Argentine President Javier Milei confirmed on Thursday that he would not be attending and would instead send his Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno and G20 sherpa Federico Pinedo as representatives.

This decision follows the announcement earlier this week that Trump would not attend, contributing to a growing list of high-profile absences.

The latest announcement from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs disclosed that Premier Li Qiang would take Xi’s place at the summit. Remarkably, no explanation was given for Xi’s absence, especially relevant considering his attendance at last year’s G20 summit.

The absence of Xi and Trump, two of the leaders of the world’s largest economies, coupled with that of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who remains blocked from international travel by an International Criminal Court arrest warrant, raises questions about the summit's scope and influence.

Analysts have indicated that these notable non-attendances reflect deeper geopolitical tensions. Earlier this year, diplomatic strains between South Africa and the US arose following derogatory comments made by Trump regarding the country’s treatment of White Afrikaners, resulting in the decision by US officials to forgo attending the summit altogether.

Despite the significant absentees, Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, has asserted that Xi's non-attendance should not be misconstrued as a diminishing regard for the importance of the G20. "I don't see any drop-off in their view that those global governance institutions are important avenues for China to communicate its message," he observed.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian reiterated the significance of the Johannesburg gathering, emphasising its "historical importance" as the first G20 summit hosted on African soil. He expressed support for South Africa as chair of the event, a role the country is undertaking amid notable international scrutiny.

In past years, particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic, Xi Jinping has notably reduced his international travel except for crucial summits filled with important side meetings. Nevertheless, he made appearances at the recent BRICS Summit in July hosted in South Africa and engaged with African leaders in Beijing last year.

Furthermore, Li Qiang, as China’s second-highest official, has filled in for Xi at several major international gatherings, most recently representing him at the G20 summit in India earlier this year, as well as during the BRICS leaders’ conference in Brazil.